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Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrometeorological Prediction (ROSES 2021)
The NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) is interested in funding proposals for investigations leading to increased understanding of Earth system predictability and increased predictive skill of hydrometeorological processes and quantities at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales. To address these problems such investigations would be expected to exploit NASA and other agency satellite observations, as well as modeling resources. The goal of the program element is to fund efforts that, while not necessarily explicitly focused on the development and improvement of S2S prediction systems, can however demonstrate a "path to utility" in the investigation structure and objectives (see Section 3).
In this program element, ESD is specifically focused on land hydrology as it relates to S2S prediction/predictability for either: 1. The S2S prediction of hydrological land surface variables such as soil moisture, groundwater, evapotranspiration, surface runoff/river discharge, and snowpack, or 2. To understand the role of hydrology in S2S prediction/predictability, such as how initialization of soil moisture, groundwater and/or snowpack lead to improved S2S prediction. There is a particular interest in extreme event prediction/predictability, e.g., flood or drought prediction/predictability at S2S timescales, etc.
ESD is also interested in both the physical understanding and practical benefits of the relationship between spatial resolution of the predicted hydrological component and the prediction lead time, along with the changes in physical realism and/or prediction skill. ESD objectives for this program element include an improved understanding of Earth System Science in the context of hydrometeorological prediction/predictability. To these ends investigations should improve understanding of the physical processes involved in land hydrology and hydrologic prediction at S2S timescales. An investigation that does not clarify these processes, even if it ultimately could lead to a more skillful prediction system (or an increase in prediction skill), is much less desirable to ESD than one that does.
NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) is developing an open source science approach that goes beyond the historic focus on open data. Investigations proposed in response to this program element should have open-source science characteristics, as explained in Section 3.
- Notice of Intent: Feb. 8, 2022
- Proposals: March 10, 2022